10 scenarios for education in 2035
Join us on a journey to reimagine our research agenda through strategic foresight
The future is arriving fast, and education systems must keep pace. That’s why EdTech Hub has partnered with IDRC’s EmpowerED programme to help education systems respond to two drivers of change over the next 10 years.
- Developments in artificial intelligence: Generative AI tools like ChatGPT already have billions of visits per month, from hundreds of millions of users.
- Increase in conflict and crisis: Increased civil and inter-state conflict, the climate crisis, and natural disasters are increasing disruptions in education, and the number of displaced and out-of-school learners.
These two things will likely have a transformative impact on how learners learn, and how teachers teach. Every day we see the ramifications and opportunities of rapid technological advancement and the need for resilience in the face of growing instability. The need for bold and collaborative action is essential, and the time for action is now.
Recognising that meaningful capacity building support must begin with a clear view of what lies ahead, we started our collaboration with a strategic foresight process. This work explored the key trends, developed from interviews with experts, that are likely to shape education systems in ten years time, and outlined a set of future scenarios that reflect the varied challenges that education systems may face.
What is strategic foresight?
Strategic foresight is a process for thinking systematically about the future (Save the Children & SOIF, 2019). By envisioning and preparing for different futures, it allows us to make strategic decisions today (Justlabs Guide to Foresight, 2021).
Our goal was to use strategic foresight approaches to analyse our mega-drivers of change, and understand possible outcomes for education systems if they continue to play out. By sharpening our understanding of the future, we can ensure today’s research has the greatest possible impact.
Keep reading to learn more about what we uncovered – including ten scenarios for education systems in 2035 – and how this work is shaping our efforts to support governments in preparing for what’s next.
Key trends that education systems will need to grapple with in 2035
The first exercise of the strategic foresight process was to look at trends. Trends examine the past and present to capture a potential direction of development that might continue into the future. Through expert interviews, a literature review, and scan for signals of change, EdTech Hub surfaced 14 trends at the intersection of AI and education, and 11 trends at the intersection of conflict, crisis and education. Below is a snapshot of what we found.
Trend 1 ➜
AI is accelerating inequality, as the infrastructure needed to benefit from AI will remain out of reach for low income countries.
Trend 2 ➜
AI is supporting teachers with administrative tasks, giving them the time to connect with their learners.
Trend 3 ➜
Hybrid learning is becoming the new normal, and children have more transitions in and out of school due to climate crisis and conflict.
Trend 4 ➜
Funding for education in conflict and crisis is increasingly insufficient, and increasingly inequitable (based on geopolitics rather than need).
Get the full picture: trends, insights, and evidence in our discovery decks
AI AND EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN 2035
Fourteen trends and five scenarios for how the future might unfold
EDUCATION IN CONFLICT AND CRISIS IN 2035
Twelve trends and five scenarios for how the future might unfold
From trends to scenarios: 10 ways the future might unfold
Based on these trends, we also outlined 10 scenarios for future education systems. Each scenario explores how different combinations of trends could interact to shape distinct futures. If the trends are the ingredients – like flour, sugar, and butter – then the scenarios are the cakes: possible outcomes when those ingredients are mixed in different ways.
To stress-test and refine the scenarios, we convened four two-hour workshops with a diverse group of experts, including policymakers, EdTech entrepreneurs, researchers, and funders. Together, they explored each scenario, iterating on the details based on their knowledge of how the future could unfold – and ranking them based on likelihood.
Here are the scenarios we envision for education systems in 2035. It’s important to note that these scenarios aren’t predictions, but possibilities: narratives that explore how different trends and decisions might interact to create radically different futures for learners, teachers, and systems.
Choose a scenario to learn more.
Scenarios for AI in education systems in 2035
The wealthy get smarter, the smarter get wealthier
It’s 2035, and AI has exacerbated the learning divide between and within nations.
High-income countries are reaping the benefits of AI-powered learning tools, while low and middle-income countries face barriers such as lack of connectivity, digital literacy, and relevant AI products. Learning poverty – 70% in 2022 – remains persistently high. Children in low-income countries leave education systems unprepared to thrive in an AI-enabled workforce, keeping low-income countries stuck while high-income countries accelerate away.
This scenario was voted most likely by experts.
Chasing the AI mirage
AI distraction has diverted resources away from learning outcomes.
Hype around AI has led to significant resource misallocation, as donors, governments, investors and schools invested heavily in AI products with little evidence of impact. These products failed to meaningfully or cost-effectively tackle the global learning crisis.
This scenario was voted 2nd most likely by experts.
AI Tutors for all
Effective personalised learning is available to many learners.
Universally accessible personalised learning systems provide high-quality learning. The cost of AI is too cheap to meter, content is tailored and applicable to children all over the world, and data gives teachers and policymakers detailed information on where to invest their energy and resources. A diverse array of startups and products build these personalised learning systems, powered by commoditised and open-sourced LLMs trained on different languages and datasets.
This scenario was voted 3rd most likely (joint) by experts.
Big tech in the classroom
AI-led learning, dominated by big tech, ushers in an era of surveillance.
AI education products have become ubiquitous in classrooms. ‘Big tech’ players often give away these products in agreement with governments and telecoms companies, with access to training data shared in return. There is no ‘opt out’ of these systems for individual learners or teachers.
This scenario was voted 3rd most likely (joint) by experts.
AI saves teachers’ time
AI lightens the bureaucratic load for teachers and school administrators.
Teachers can focus more on delivering lessons and deepening connections with learners, because AI products save them hours of time. From drafting report cards, to planning timetables and lessons, to building assessments, many time-consuming processes have become semi-automated. The tasks this has added to teachers’ lives, such as troubleshooting technical issues or managing devices, are small by comparison. Teacher satisfaction has skyrocketed.
This scenario was voted 5th most likely by experts.
Scenarios for conflict and crisis in education systems in 2035
The global funding collapse
Systemic funding drops, so crisis-affected countries turn to public relations and bilateral alliances.
Global aid is totally fragmented, and politicised. Individual countries make their own decisions on where to allocate aid funding, based on their own international or domestic politics. Systematic funding allocations, based on data and impact potential, are replaced with regional coalitions, B2C EdTech products marketing themselves to consumers in crisis contexts, greater PR and lobbying efforts from crisis-affected countries, and commercial equity/debt financing over grantmaking.
This scenario was voted most likely by experts.
Schools close, but learning continues (for some)
Hybrid learning becomes increasingly normalised due to conflict and crisis.
National education systems are integrating hybrid models, meaning children have structured pathways to keep learning at home. This includes EdTech products, training to parents and community members, and tools and autonomy for teachers to support. More regular, predictable crises have made this essential, but it’s not perfect. The absence of peer learning, socialisation, and the school environment still means learning loss – but not as much.
This scenario was voted 2nd most likely by experts.
New faces of education
Crises pivot and blur the role of a teacher.
Prolonged crises blur the lines between traditional and non-traditional educators, the role of a “teacher” expands to include caregivers, community educators, and bots. In countries with effective EdTech tools and strong, formal training for “reserve” teachers, this has helped ease the burden on teachers. In others, it has de-professionalised teaching further, leading to worse education outcomes.
This scenario was voted 3rd most likely by experts.
A crisis education playbook (for some)
The holistic crisis response framework – we know what works, but it’s available unequally.
Tired of short term, reactive responses to crises, the global community has developed a holistic framework for education in emergencies, which has been adopted by several Ministries of Education in LMIC contexts. The framework includes crisis curricula, systematic hybrid learning approaches, trauma informed teacher training, and full inclusion for learners with disabilities.
This scenario was voted 4th most likely by experts.
Borderless accreditation
More systematic learning for children on the move.
A global accreditation system gives displaced learners the chance to earn certificates that work across borders. With a certification, a learner can join the education system or enter a workforce in their host country. High-income countries, with aging workforces, welcome this trend. As to global tech companies, who can hire validated talent anywhere in the world.
This scenario was voted 5th most likely by experts.
By imagining these different future scenarios, we can better prepare for them. Our hope is that these scenarios can help policymakers, funders, and education leaders anticipate risks, spot opportunities, and make more strategic decisions in the present. They are also informing the next phase of our partnership.
What’s next: translating foresight into action
Now we know what might be around the corner, EdTech Hub and IDRC are developing an action-oriented research programme to further investigate how governments and their supporters can strengthen capacity and prepare given these potential scenarios. We are excited to share more about this research later this year!
If you’d like to learn more or be a part of our journey, get in touch with us at hello@edtechhub.org.
And some thanks
Our strategic foresight study would not have been possible without the support of many experts. Special thanks to representatives from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Gates Foundation, World Bank, UNHCR, UNICEF, Fundación Ceibal, Angaza Elimu, Taleemabad, ACER, Can’t Wait to Learn, IT for Change, as well as officials from governments, EdTech Hub and IDRC team members.
The images used in this blog were generated using AI (Adobe Firefly).
